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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."